VALID 21Z MON 14/10 - 06Z TUE 15/10 2002
ISSUED: 14/10 19:02Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL EUROPE

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS TURKEY

SYNOPSIS

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF THE FRONTAL ZONE IS STRETCHED TO THE S IN THE EUROPEAN SECTOR WHILE NORTHERN BLOCKING SITUATION STILL REMAINS. AMPLIFIED LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS STATIONARY W OF EUROPE. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE DIGGING NE REACHING DELTA OF THE FLOW OVER EUROPE IN CONNECTION WITH STRONG THETA-E- AND ZYCLONAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW STRONG ZYCLOGENESIS W OF EUROPE AFFECTING WESTERN EUROPE TOMORROW.

DISCUSSION

...NORTHERN CENTRAL EUROPE...
FIRST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PLACED OVER BENELUX AND NORTHERN GERMANY PROPAGATING TO THE W ... CAUSING STRONG THETA-E-ADVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE EDGE OF COLD AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN EUROPE. IN CONNECTION ZYCLONAL VORTICITY ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. 12Z-TEMPS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM AIRMASS, AND SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER BENELUX/NORTHERN GERMANY. UPPER JET SEEMS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ORGANISE THESE SHOWERS, SO TSTORMS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE ... PRODUCING HEAYY RAIN/ SOFT HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ... HOWEVER ... SEVERE THREAT SHOULD NOT BE REACHED WHILE INSTABILITY IS MARGINALLY AND STRONGER STORMS SHOULD NOT FORM IN THE NEXT HOURS.

...EXTREMELY WESTERN EUROPE...
SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING EASTWARD ... PRODUCING STRONG ZYCLONAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ... AND HIGH THETA-E-ADVECTION, CAUSING RAPIDLY DEEPENIG OF DEVELOPING LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC ... LATEST WV-IMAGES INDICATE IMPRESSING DRY INTRUSION S OF THE STORM. LATEST DMO SHOW INTENSE LOW TOMORROW MORNING SW OF BRITISH ISLES. IN ADDITION WITH GREAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD INCREASE REACHING SEVERE LEVEL ... HOWEVER ... STORM SHOULD NOT AFFECT FORECAST AREA THIS NIGHT WITH SEVERE WINDS ... HEAVY RAIN, WINDSGUSTS UP TO 40 KN SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

...TURKEY...
SOME WELL DEVELOPED STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TURKEY THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THE SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERE WEATHER ... BECAUSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING TO THE EAST AND SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD NOT BE IMPRESSIVE ANYMORE ... HOWEVER ... SOME STORMS MAY FORM THIS NIGHT ... PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

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